Population in Arab Countries
In my posting two weeks ago I figured out that main oil producing Arab countries, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait had a considerable negative per capita annual growth rate during 28 years 1975-2003 and still they are among the very rich countries. This needs explanation. One explanation can be the population structure.
Following is the data for GDP average annual growth rate and population average annual growth rate respectively for 1975-2003:
Kuwait: 1.53, 3.14 – Qatar: N.A., 5.33 – Saudi Arabia: 2.33, 4.26 – United Arab Emirates: 4.97, 7.71- and for comparison, Iran: 2.28, 2.51, Turkey: 3.74, 2.05
It is clear that whatever was the GDP growth rate, the population has absorbed the growth such that among the above countries all of them except Turkey had negative growth rate. It seems reasonable for Arab countries to increase the population for they were very low populated areas. In 1950 total population of four above Arab countries was about 4.1 million, 3.8 of which in Saudi Arabia. In 2003 total population reached to 30.6 million, 25 million of them in Saudi Arabia.
It seems that the optimal policy regarding population and growth can not be independent of starting situation. Arab countries needed human beings to improve their economic situation. Negative per capita rate in these countries does not matte as long as they can catch up in future. They imported population. A look at the population pyramid of these countries shows that the ratio of middle age male to female in these countries is very high. (data available at U.S. Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/). Many young and middle age workers from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Asia and Iran are now working in these countries. The picture below is the population pyramid for United Arab Emirates as an example. There are so many extra men than women in age 35 to 65. Considering that biologically the number of male and female should be almost the same, it should be the result of immigration policy in these countries.
I wanted to write about Iran, but it ended here. I let the questions to come to my mind freely. They are interesting and I don’t want to block them.
I’ll try to post some notes on the structure of economy in these countries and compare them and some other countries with Iran in future.
Following is the data for GDP average annual growth rate and population average annual growth rate respectively for 1975-2003:
Kuwait: 1.53, 3.14 – Qatar: N.A., 5.33 – Saudi Arabia: 2.33, 4.26 – United Arab Emirates: 4.97, 7.71- and for comparison, Iran: 2.28, 2.51, Turkey: 3.74, 2.05
It is clear that whatever was the GDP growth rate, the population has absorbed the growth such that among the above countries all of them except Turkey had negative growth rate. It seems reasonable for Arab countries to increase the population for they were very low populated areas. In 1950 total population of four above Arab countries was about 4.1 million, 3.8 of which in Saudi Arabia. In 2003 total population reached to 30.6 million, 25 million of them in Saudi Arabia.
It seems that the optimal policy regarding population and growth can not be independent of starting situation. Arab countries needed human beings to improve their economic situation. Negative per capita rate in these countries does not matte as long as they can catch up in future. They imported population. A look at the population pyramid of these countries shows that the ratio of middle age male to female in these countries is very high. (data available at U.S. Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/). Many young and middle age workers from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Asia and Iran are now working in these countries. The picture below is the population pyramid for United Arab Emirates as an example. There are so many extra men than women in age 35 to 65. Considering that biologically the number of male and female should be almost the same, it should be the result of immigration policy in these countries.
I wanted to write about Iran, but it ended here. I let the questions to come to my mind freely. They are interesting and I don’t want to block them.
I’ll try to post some notes on the structure of economy in these countries and compare them and some other countries with Iran in future.
posted by IRPD Member at
8:57 AM
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